Methods for Countering Asymmetric Warfare Tactics

Methods for Countering Asymmetric Warfare Tactics
The Need for Improved Human Intelligence, Not More Pervasive Signal Intelligence

What intelligence gathering strategies and activities are indicated for effective counterterrorism against asymmetrical warfare? What implementation issues, challenges to legality/Constitutionality, and national or international public opinion issues are likely to influence these strategies?

Author: Jonathan B. Smith

Michigan State University 's School of Criminal Justice
Issues in Terrorism
Professor Robyn R. Mace, Ph.D.
Module 9: Policy and Analysis

Quote

If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him.
If he is in superior strength, evade him.
If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him.
Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant.
If he is taking his ease, give him no rest.
If his forces are united, separate them.
If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them.
Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.

Asymmetrical Warfare

The current Global War on Terror (GWOT) is more of a shadow war than a traditional war. The terrorists are inclined to use asymmetrical warfare tactics due to the overwhelming superiority of our military. Thus, they choose to engage in a battle to undermine the confidence of the nation by attempting to demonstrate our inability to protect our citizens in their every day lives.

The nation's counterrorism effort to exploit our strengths and uncover their weaknesses (asymmetry's Achilles Heel is that it is only effective if the terrorist's infrastructure is "hidden in the shadows,") and eliminate any advantages that the terrorists' asymmetrical tactics afford them.

In any battle, those who can most effectively adapt their strengths and exploit the enemy's weakness will prevail. The U.S. Marines have a motto to remind the troops how to perform under fire, even under the most dire conditions, "improvise, adapt, and overcome." The nation needs to heed the Marines advice and "improvise, adapt and overcome."

Intelligence

"The means for countering asymmetry lie not in conventional warfare but with the ability to collect information. Information allows security forces to bring terrorists into the open, and without the information security forces are paralyzed . . . . Intelligence gathering assumes the most important function in asymmetrical war."

Jonathan R. White

The West holds an overwhelming technological intelligence gathering capability through its signal intelligence (SIGINT) gathering apparatus, aka ECHELON. The pervasiveness and potential abuses of this system have caused a great deal of controversy. The American Civil Liberties Union, Center for Democracy and Technology, Electronic Frontier Foundation, Electronic Privacy Information Center and the Federation of American Scientists have all published literature about the potential civil liberties violations and conflicts inherent in the government's SIGINT capabilities (Suggested reading - Chatter by Patrick Radden Keefe). The irony of the whole situation is that Osama bin Laden (OBL) and al Qaeda (AQ) are aware of the West's SIGINT capabilities and have taken great pains to circumvent ECHELON's reach; by avoiding written records, utilizing hawala for money exchange, using human couriers for delivering critical messages vs. satellite phones, and attempting to cover up any of their electronic footprints.

Human Intelligence (HUMINT) probably offers the best source of information for countering the asymmetrical warfare tactics utilized by AQ. Unfortunately the intelligence community has not been able to adequately penetrate AQ's veil. This has made it exceedingly difficult to develop an effective intelligence analysis program on the organization. The failure to penetrate AQ's organization is best described by Michael Scheuer in an article from The Atlantic Monthly entitled Inside Out - Why it's so hard to infiltrate al-Qaeda. Below is an excerpt from the article describing the conundrum that the CIA faces, when trying to crack AQ.

Here's the challenge that al-Qaeda and other Sunni militant groups pose: In such organizations the old Soviet scenario is exactly reversed—the militants who are least ideologically committed (and therefore most easily recruited by our spy agencies) are found at the edges of the groups, among the ranks of those who perform gunrunning, human smuggling, and narcotics trafficking. Once we've recruited these people, their value to us increases as they move toward the center of al-Qaeda. The problem is that the higher a would-be spy rises in al-Qaeda's ranks, the greater the ideological and theological commitment of his associates; Sunni leaders are often (though certainly not always) the devout and courageous men their media organizations claim them to be. Career advancement in al-Qaeda tends to wash away much of the mercenary hypocrisy found at the entry level—and therefore, in effect, to unrecruit those cultivated by our intelligence agencies. The odds of our ever having an informant among the senior al-Qaeda decision-makers are remote.

Inside Out - Why it's so hard to infiltrate al-Qaeda

Conclusion

The GWOT is not dissimilar to the Cold War, it is going to take years to sort out. The clash of cultures between what Barber calls McWorld (consumerism) and Jihad (Islamic Fundamentalist Xenophobia) is and will continue to be a significant contributing factor to the struggle. Ultimately neither of these bipolar paradigms support the virtues of human dignity, rugged individualism or democratic values.

My belief is that the American Civil Liberties Union, Center for Democracy and Technology, Electronic Frontier Foundation, Electronic Privacy Information Center and the Federation of American Scientists will continue to play an ever important role in helping to maintain our civil liberties. Without a counterbalance, our civil liberties will be trounced by an ever vigilant and Orwellian government in the name of "security."

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