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3
Feb

By Gal Luft

Source: www.politico.com

The demonstrations in Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world could well be the harbinger of an excruciating oil crisis. Not because Egypt is a major oil exporter. It isn’t. Egypt produces less than 1 percent of the world’s oil. And not even because it controls the Suez Canal, through which 1.8 million barrels, about 5 percent of the overall global tanker trade, travels daily.


Egypt is relevant to the oil market because it may be a bellwether for the disgruntled masses in Saudi Arabia. And instability in that oil kingdom is how mega-oil shocks are made.

For decades, experts have warned about the fragility of the House of Saud. To curtail their opposition, Saudi monarchs have placated their subjects with cradle-to-grave, petrodollar-funded entitlement programs, while taming the Wahhabi establishment through charitable contributions to religious institutions worldwide. Inspired by the events elsewhere in the Sunni Muslim world, this social contract could face a challenge at the worst possible time — when the House of Saud’s top echelon is ill and geriatric.

If the Saudis should decide to emulate their Egyptian brethren, a new oil crisis might be upon us. Saudi Arabia not only is the world’s largest exporter, it also holds 70 percent of the world’s spare production capacity. In other words, Saudi Arabia is the oil market’s only firefighter, capable of supplying the market when others falter. But if the fire station is on fire, there will be no one to save the neighborhood.

A new oil shock would cause our economy to nose-dive back into a recession. 7XDS7HVDW42H

Category : energy security | middle east | think tank | Blog
31
Jan

Examines the effects that a stronger focus on homeland security and counterterrorism has had on law enforcement since 9/11, including organizational changes, funding mechanisms, and benefits, costs, and future challenges.
New RAND Terrorism and Homeland Security Publications

Category : homeland security | Blog
17
Feb

afis Task Forces Bolster OIF, OEF Maritime Security
By Capt. Steve Alvarez, USA
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, Feb. 17, 2006 – Three years ago, U.S. Navy SEALs secured the Basra and Khwar Al Amaya oil terminals and started maritime security operations in the Persian Gulf. Today, the U.S. Navy and its coalition partners continue operations there and have expanded the range of the maritime mission, but continue to support operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom.

“Maritime security operations in the North Arabian Gulf support OIF by protecting two critical Iraqi infrastructure nodes, which represent a significant portion of Iraq’s economy,” Navy Rear Adm. John W. Miller said. “By helping to protect the two offshore oil terminals and working to provide security and stability in the maritime environment, U.S., Iraqi and coalition forces are helping to set the conditions that will provide the Iraqi people the best opportunity for self-determination,” he said . . .

But that security has come with sacrifice. On April 24, 2004, terrorists attacked an Iraqi oil terminal in the Persian Gulf just offshore of Iraq’s port of Umm Qasr. Using three “dhows” — vessels unique to the Middle East — full of explosives, terrorists detonated their floating bombs as coalition forces intercepted them, officials said from Bahrain. It was the first attack against oil infrastructure since Operation Iraqi Freedom had begun on March 19, 2003.

The attacks were similar to the Oct. 12, 2000, USS Cole al Qaeda-led bombing in Yemen, where 17 U.S. sailors died. Iraqi and U.S. personnel on the terminals and on ships and small boats near the terminals successfully thwarted the 2004 attacks, but two U.S. sailors and one U.S. Coast Guardsman were killed, officials said.

“We do not want to overstate the threat at sea, but it is still there,” Miller said. “We can never afford to be complacent. Our forces never know for certain what they will face during each boarding. … The enemy continuously look for opportunities, so we must continue to make it difficult for them to achieve success.”

Full Story

Category : energy security | maritime security | small boat attack | terrorism | Blog